WELCOME TO MY WEBSITE
This website focuses on my efforts to transform how organizations lead complex development efforts through three guiding principles: Embrace Uncertainty, Think Like an Investor, and Apply Systems Thinking. These principles offer a practical framework for managing risk and value throughout the project lifecycle. Embrace Uncertainty involves viewing unknowns as measurable factors—quantified and monitored using probability and Bayesian reasoning—to guide decision-making. Think Like an Investor considers projects as capital investments, evaluating them by their evolving potential and applying option-style economics to balance risk and reward. Apply Systems Thinking ensures that the solutions delivered have enduring qualities—such as reliability, scalability, maintainability, and adaptability—that support long-term value.
These ideas are detailed in an upcoming book, tentatively titled “Development Economics and Project Control: Managing Uncertainty with Bayesian Thinking,” which I, Glen Alleman, and Christian Smart are co-authoring.
The website will include updates on the releases, planned webinars, and relevant whitepapers
My work is based on development economics , project control and applied probability. You will find whitepapers on these topics by clicking on each category above.
News & Blog Updates
Stay informed with the latest insights on system development, project risk management, and innovation strategies. From practical frameworks to real-world case studies, my blog provides expert perspectives to help you tackle complex development challenges with confidence.
Recent Events
I posted this article for historical interest. Today, No Estimates is best understood less as a dominant movement than as a lasting critique that pushed software teams away from ritualized estimation and toward evidence-based forecasting.
I just posted an article exploring why Bayesian methods are a better fit for project estimation than traditional statistical approaches. It traces the history of attempts to build project databases, explains where they fall short, and makes the case for starting with expert judgment and updating with real data as your project unfolds. Give it a read!
The Intaver Institute has just released a major update to its RiskyProject platform, including a separately priced module based on Bayesian parameter learning to significantly improve predictions of time and cost to complete.
Bill Dow is a prominent figure in the project management community. Recently, I recorded two webinars on his YouTube channel: one about the principles from the book I am writing with Glen Alleman and Christian Smart, and another on Intaver Institute's RiskyProject project management V8 update featuring a Bayesian learning module. The first webinar is now available. You can view it here.
